As of March 20, what has changed:
Evidence that Virus severity may be diminishing:
- The situation seems to have improved after two days of no new cases of Covid19. Apple has reopened its stores in China. They were closed for a month.
- March 20: Fatality rate on the Cruise ships was much lower (Kristoff)
- This seems to suggest that a month to six weeks of social distancing may have a significantly positive impact.
- There is some suggestion that the virus does better in cold climates – so as we move into the Northern hemisphere spring that may impede the virus.
However
- Italy has a fatality rate of about 8% but their population skews older. (Germany has only had a 0.3% fatality rate.)
- However, the fatality rate may be less important than the hospitalization rate. France is reporting a 10% hospitalization rate and it has been higher in the US. The US doesn’t have enough beds for this and we are doing very little to increase beds.
Response efficacy may be increasing
- People seem to be respecting the order to stay separated, New York has managed to shut down completely (opinion).
- Federal government health support is still lacking and politicians are unable to demonstrate any leadership (opinion).
- Automakers offer to produce ventilators.
- Deblasio asks Elon Must to make ventilators.
The lack of coordination here is disturbing, but at least there is a push to solve the ventilator problem. (Hospitals in the US have a grand total of about 172,600 of these machines). - A 1000 bed hospital ship is on its way to New York.
- A trillion dollars of aid was approved, on the negative side this does not include much that will help against a virus but it does include a paid sick leave provision.
However,
- There was a report that the White House is purposefully not filling the leadership void in the interest of “small government”.
- The White House continues to try to hide information and focus more on market conditions than on solving the problem.
- There is already a shortage of medical equipment and masks and there is no coordinated response.(However, Honeywell and 3M are increasing production of masks).