In this scenario the virus is severe abut our response matches the challenge. We take swift action to increase healthcare capacity. Gyms, schools, community centers, and other large buildings are converted to hospitals, whoever can produce ventilators does. The fast production of masks and PPE allows doctors and healthcare workers to stay safe.

We realize that fiscal and monetary policies are insufficient and begin using government policy to fight the virus.

Following the government’s lead, more businesses take the pandemic seriously, offer support services and manage to stay alive through government subsidy and continued buying from the population.

Social distancing is effective and we are able to control exposure as we slowly come back out of homes. The virus proves quite severe so we do this slowly spending months in isolation – but we manage it.

Deaths in this scenario are still likely to top a million (taken from Dr. Neil M Ferguson) from the disease alone.

But the actual impact is managed. Healthcare workers are tired and overworked but there is no rationing. Patients with Covid 19 and unrelated illnesses are able to get the care they need.

The experience is unnerving and the disease is severe but we are able to deal with it in a way that instills confidence. We see light at the end of the tunnel and rather than hunkering down into “every person for him or her self” we do find ways to support each other from afar. People are engaged and active.

• Swift response creates significant healthcare capacity that is overworked but able to keep up. 
• Social distancing helps to minimize infections. 
• Unemployment is high, but people are supported, remote work helps, economic recovery is slow but also steady, extended recession rather than depression. 
• The disease is severe, but we deal with it in a way that instills confidence.  

Economic Consequences

The economy will suffer in this scenario but avoiding the collapse into chaos means that we can continue economic activity. The overall experience is shorter so we get back to normalcy more quickly.

We see unemployment in the high teens, but fiscal and monetary policies help blunt the blow. Loan holidays help people avoid the worst.

Industries that will do well 

• Healthcare suppliers. 
• Prepping.
• In-home entertainment. 
• Remote work companies. 
• Online shopping and entertainment, generally people will feel confident enough to buy and keep the economy going.  The difference to chaos is that in chaos this part falls apart.
• Remote education

Industries that will suffer

• In-person service industries, restaurants etc.
• Airlines/travel – the severity of the virus will keep people from traveling

From a planning perspective

Plan to work from home for a long period of time. Incomes will drop but there will be reasonable underlying activity.

Look to create online offerings and help people create online offerings.