Our swift comprehensive response stops the virus in its tracks even as we realize that the virus is not as serious as we once thought.

Swift response creates significant healthcare capacity that ends up being unnecessary. 

There is a blip in infections from which most people recover completely.  Some people do need hospitalization but hospital capacity is available and everyone gets the care they need.

Shortages are short-lived and handled well.

Unemployment bumps up due to the shutdown, but government assistance ensures most businesses survive and are able to restart. The stimulus in this scenario is extremely effective because people are able to spend their money and jump-start the economy.

This is a true a V-shaped recession with a quick decline and quick recovery.

What industries will do well

Most industries are fine. The initial blip causes unemployment, but people are largely able to gloss over this.

What industries will not do well

Rather than industries, it is individual companies that will struggle. Any over-leveraged company or a company without savings or access to cash will face major challenges. These companies will need short term loans and assistance.