I think response efficacy is a more powerful driver of future scenarios than virus severity.  My reasoning is the emotional nature of people and the uncertainty: we won’t know how severe the virus really is until it is over.  

A poor response will magnify the impact of the relatively less severe virus and drive a severe viral outbreak out of control. 

In contrast, a strong competent response would be good for the economy regardless.  The biggest negative of an effective response is that we may end up with extra healthcare capacity. 

What an effective response would look like: 

• Be well-coordinated across geographies.  This is a global issue so the fix would have to be global.   
• Be unemotional – following previously established protocols, based on science and evidence. 
• Address short- and long-term issues. 
• Address root causes including health and unequal access to healthcare.  
• We’d be adding lots of beds…

What an ineffective response would look like:

• Ad-hoc based on emotional triggers rather than fact. 
• Decentralized with minimal coordination/cooperation. 
• Not be coordinated across time frame, either short- or long-term issues. 
• Neglect root causes.

Based on these criteria, then I would say that the current response is trending toward ineffective at a global level, ineffective at a national level and moderately effective at a local level in New York.

The current focus on social distancing is important and necessary but just social distancing ignores long-term needs.  The response seems mostly emotional and reactionary rather than thought through and planned.  It is ad-hoc and poorly coordinated.

Evidence of Ineffective Response

At the federal level

Most of the evidence here is lack of action rather than action:

• The White House seems to have completely abdicated any responsibility with the president minimizing the virus and not modeling social distancing.
• The president has not coordinated the production of needed supplies.
• The White House asks Facebook group for advice rather than experts: “If you were in charge of Federal response to the Pandemic what would your recommendation be. Please only serious responses,” Kurt Kloss, father of Karlie Kloss, wrote in a Facebook group called EM Docs. “I have direct channel to person now in charge at White House.” That direct line was Kushner.
• There was a report of Trump abdicating on purpose due to his small-government conviction, but I can’t find it.
• Still no increase in medical supplies (as of March 20)
• CDC created models of how the virus would impact the country, as of March 17 the Whitehouse Coronoa task force had not viewed thiese.

Evidence of an effective response

At the local level

• In New York, we have mostly shut down, nobody is on the roads, nobody is in the city. It appears that orders to stay inside are working.